Forex Trading Ideas for the Week | April 06 - April 10, 2020
I'm annoyed at myself because I could have uploaded this earlier (I will really start doing so next week, and be professional about it) + finish the batch videos I've been trying to edit for weeks now and be hella more productive during lockdown, if it weren't for our ultra slow internet recently, on top of my blossoming addiction in Tiktok.
Eww.
Shut up.
I already signed up and have Tiktok videos myself for my budding influencer goals lol. Goodluck finding them though because not gonna link them here 🙈 -- not embarrassed about it or anything (I'm actually proud of my videos). But it's not aligned to this blog's branding and should be in my other blog instead lol.
Not gonna lie, Tiktok is like a virus itself. China is really taking over the world (again-- actually they've been the most powerful centuries ago if we look at history. Also check out this insightful research by Mr. Ray Dalio).
I shouldn't have listened to my dad when he told me to stop studying Mandarin and study French. Like, what do I even get from studying French?
Learning Chinese is more relevant.
Also glad that the lockdown in China's Wuhan province is over although hopefully, the virus won't re-emerge there and it's fully safe already in their streets (wishing Amazon FBA back to normal operations too).
I don't think the rest of the world is ready to end its lockdown though anytime soon-- in fact it hasn't even peaked yet, and it's definitely gonna be longer than Wuhan or China's lockdown period because of different culture and mentality.
On the other side of the world, I'm happy about Trump attacking WHO, because I'm pissed with the latter for trying to discourage people to wear masks, in their futile effort to save supplies for frontliners-- but it's gonna be a chicken-and-egg scenario if more people get positive, and regardless of frontliners having enough masks or not especially medical practioners, there's a limited number of people they can help at a certain period and location.
The best solution is prevention and controlling the spread-- a proactive approach not a reactive one, and wearing a mask when going outside helps tremendously. I mean, it's clearly common sense. Just look at South Korea. Taiwan and Singapore too. Look at how faster they're able to control the confirmed cases already compared to the location of these effing WHO "experts" lol.
Disclaimer: I'm neither a Trump supporter nor hater. As I often said in my previous posts, "just here for the pips." But imho, WHO is clearly being stupid and bureaucratic, and it annoys me in general when people try to use their titles or claim to be "experts" to prove a pointless academic "proof" that doesn't work much--or at all-- in real life.
What does that rant have to do with trading? A lot actually. It shows a hint which areas will recover faster from the pandemic and work on reviving their economy soon, and which will definitely lag behind.
Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this other Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
I. FX Trading Ideas for the Holy Week
More likely the ideas here are gonna be still applicable until next week because again, I expect the markets now to be less active than usual.
AUD - Buy (short-term)
Still bullish for Aussie pairs, at least in the short-run, especially Australia hasn't been ravaged by the virus as much as other parts of the globe (like Europe and US). I mean, Aussies need a break already after those crazy wildfires last time too. Expecting Aussie pairs to continue rallying up especially with China, their major trading partner, showing signs of recovery now too.
Need to be cautious though because aside from risks of that virus suddenly re-emerging (hopefully, no more lockdown part 2), gold is also about to reach its high again, and as mentioned in my oil and metals analysis post for this month, more likely for yellow metal to consolidate--if not go bearish, short to mid-term, after Putin announced that Russia will stop buying gold now and open for selling.
Need to be cautious though because aside from risks of that virus suddenly re-emerging (hopefully, no more lockdown part 2), gold is also about to reach its high again, and as mentioned in my oil and metals analysis post for this month, more likely for yellow metal to consolidate--if not go bearish, short to mid-term, after Putin announced that Russia will stop buying gold now and open for selling.
AUDCHF - Buy near 0.57-0.58
AUDJPY - Buy near 64 up to 71.5-72
AUDNZD - Wait for bullish continuation past 1.035 then buy until near 1.05
AUDUSD - Wait for consolidation and better entry and buy near 0.60
EURAUD - Continue selling up to near 1.70-1.725
GBPAUD - Sell near 2.05 up to 1.90
CAD - Buy (short-term)
Expecting the CAD pairs to rally in the short-run too as oil starts recovering a bit from its bottom recently. However, still bearish for CAD overall, not because Trudeau is icky about moist virus, but because this pandemic is causing the markets to be risk-averse which isn't good for both oil and CAD.
CADCHF - Buy near 0.675
CADJPY - Buy near 76
EURCAD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.52 then sell
GBPCAD - Continue selling, else wait for better entry near 1.78 first
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.84
USDCAD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.395 then sell
AUDCAD - Wait near 0.865
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CHF - Wait
Overall, I'm still bullish with CHF in mid to long-run because it maintains its safe-haven currency status even though it's not as in-demand now as USD. However in the short run, expecting the franc to consolidate now.
CHFJPY - Wait near 112
EURCHF - Wait near 1.06
GBPCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 1.20, or better entry near 1.145 then buy
NZDCHF - Wait for better entry near 0.57 before buying
USDCHF - Wait near 0.97
AUDCHF - Buy near 0.57-0.58
CADCHF - Buy near 0.675
EUR - Sell
Even if Europe's confirmed cases seemed to have peaked by now, as well as relative bullish sentiment on Euro in the futures market and most Euro pairs being oversold already, still bearish mid to long term on Euro, because compared to other economies which will more likely bounce back faster after this pandemic, imho Euro will struggle more with general complacent attitude over the virus (except Germany), business confidence trending down since 2018, and existing disagreements within the Euro zone.
EURGBP - Wait for better entry near 0.90 or higher then sell
EURJPY - Wait near 118.5
EURNZD - Sell near 1.85
EURUSD - Sell near 1.11
EURAUD - Continue selling up to near 1.70-1.725
EURCAD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.52 then sell
EURCHF - Wait near 1.06
GBP - Wait
Outlook for GBP pairs are mixed. Though I'm actually bearish on the pound in the short-run, in the mid to long-run, UK is likely to recover faster than Eurozone. But for now, best to ride other currencies affecting the GBP pairs' current price action. It's also uncertain if UK won't get a deal regarding free trade post-Brexit by end of 2020, or if this pandemic can be used as excuse to ask for another extension (I think the latter is more likely).
GBPJPY - Wait for bullish continuation past 134.5 then buy
GBPNZD - Wait for confirmed bearish reversal near 2.05
GBPUSD - Wait for better entry near 1.20 or lower before counter-trend buying
EURGBP - Wait for better entry near 0.90 or higher then sell
GBPAUD - Sell near 2.05 up to 1.90
GBPCAD - Continue selling, else wait for better entry near 1.78 first
GBPCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 1.20, or better entry near 1.145 then buy
NZD - Wait
Similar to Aussie pairs above, expecting NZD to continue its rally. However it's best to wait for better entry before buying. RBNZ will be boosting its quantitative easing program too and buy up to $33 billion government bonds to hasten recovery in its economy.
NZDJPY - Wait for confirmed bullish reversal past 66
NZDUSD - Wait near 0.60
AUDNZD - Wait for bullish continuation past 1.035 then buy until near 1.05
EURNZD - Sell near 1.85
GBPNZD - Wait for confirmed bearish reversal near 2.05
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.84
NZDCHF - Wait for better entry near 0.57 before buying
JPY - Wait
Similar to CHF, expecting JPY to consolidate this month. However being more liquid than CHF, expecting increasing volatility for yen pairs as long as the pandemic isn't over yet.
USDJPY - Wait for better entry near 106.5 else wait for bullish breakout and confirmation
AUDJPY - Buy near 64 up to 71.5-72
CADJPY - Buy near 76
CHFJPY - Wait near 112
EURJPY - Wait near 118.5
GBPJPY - Wait for bullish continuation past 134.5 then buy
NZDJPY - Wait for confirmed bullish reversal past 66
USD - Wait
Still bullish overall on the USD despite the US having the highest number of confirmed cases now and more likelihood of not recovering early from this pandemic. Aside from being a reserve currency, USD is also being regarded as another safe haven currency (though not the same level as JPY, more whales prefer USD than CHF and gold though because of the dollar's liquidity).
However in the short-run, USD pairs and DXY are more likely to consolidate soon. In the long-run, higher possibility for DXY to climb up to 104 still as explained in my forex seasonality for April 2020.
So I don't buy other's claims against the dollar right now such as Robert Kyosaki's tweet last time-- at least not yet, unless this pandemic lasts past summer and extend further by end of the year, or there's a sudden grand scale shortage in food and other basic necessities.
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Unlike with the current WHO people, I have huge respect to Kyosaki though. Also, what he's saying is not impossible.
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AUDUSD - Wait for consolidation and better entry and buy near 0.60
EURUSD - Sell near 1.11
GBPUSD - Wait for better entry near 1.20 or lower before counter-trend buying
NZDUSD - Wait near 0.60
USDCAD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.395 then sell
USDCHF - Wait near 0.97
USDJPY - Wait for better entry near 106.5 else wait for bullish breakout and confirmation
XAUUSD - Wait for confirmed bearish reversal at 1700 then sell
XAGUSD - Wait near 15
XTIUSD - Ride short-term rally up to 35-41.5, else wait for better short entry and continue selling
USDZAR - Wait for short-term bearish reversal and continuation past 18.2 then sell
USDMXN - Sell for confirmed short-term bearish reversal near 25 then sell
USDCNH - Wait near 7-7.05
Feature photo by Dominika R. from Pexels
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