FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Aug 12 - Aug 16, 2019

By Aiza Belle | 13 August 2019 | | Share:

Trying to stay awake while everything is in a state of limbo.

Most currency pairs lately have been exhibiting lower volatility compared to how they've been on average in the past weeks or so. I sense upcoming reversal to some of them (i.e. JPY pairs).




But it's also possible that since August is a Ghost Month for Chinese folks, we're actually experiencing less volume now too since the Chinese whales are definitely avoiding any risky pursuits this month that may cause rapid change in their assets (i.e. trading) and just stick to buying more real estate instead and countering Trump's tantrums.

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

I. FX Trading Ideas for the Week

AUD - Wait

The Aussie pairs are part of those considered in limbo at the start of the week, initially with promising reversal and bullishness during mid-week last week, only to reverse again by last Friday. Regardless, I see Aussie pairs as oversold now, so get ready to pounce if ever. But better to wait for some confirmation first and best to enter long right after AUD's consumer sentiment and CNY production news releases this week (if bullish momentum remains in the smaller time frame charts -- i.e. 15 minute and 1 hour).

AUDCAD - Wait near 0.89
AUDCHF - Wait for confirmed bounce up before buying, preferably counter-trend buy near 0.65
AUDJPY - Wait for confirmed bounce up before buying, preferably counter-trend buy near 70.5
AUDNZD - Wait for bullish continuation past 1.05
AUDUSD - Wait for confirmed bounce up near 0.67
EURAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation around 1.66 - 1.67 before counter-trend selling
GBPAUD - Wait near 1.78

AUDUSD Long

CAD - Wait

Price action wise, oil might be bound for a correction this week, and most of CAD's momentum comes from other currencies so better to ride those instead while keeping an eye on being aligned to a bearish bias on CAD thanks to oil and the recent talk between US and China.

CADCHF - Wait near 0.735
CADJPY - Wait for confirmed bullish reversal near 79 before buying
EURCAD - Buy near 1.48 or better entry lower
GBPCAD - Wait for confirmed bounce up near 1.60 then buy
NZDCAD - Wait for confirmed  bottom and bounce up near 0.85 then buy
USDCAD - Wait to rally near 1.34 then sell again
AUDCAD - Wait near 0.89

USDCAD Short

CHF - Wait

Another currency in limbo, despite technically strong appeal of safe haven assets these days, because of SNB's "quiet" intervention last week to prevent the Swiss franc from appreciating a lot against the Euro. Might have some short-term trading opportunities in the reversals, but unlike other currency pair, be weary of trading CHF pairs because CHF is obviously highly manipulated.

CHFJPY - Wait for confirmed bounce up from 1.076 before buying
EURCHF - Wait for confirmed bounce up near 1.085 before buying
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.175
NZDCHF - Wait for confirmed bounce up near 0.62 before buying
USDCHF - Wait for better sell entry near 0.99
AUDCHF - Wait for confirmed bounce up before buying, preferably counter-trend buy near 0.65
CADCHF - Wait near 0.735

EUR - counter-trend Sell (short-term)

Still similar call as last week, either ride the possible short-term rally, or wait it out and enter a better buying opportunity because overall, I still have a bullish bias on EUR in the long-run, especially that it's sometimes being considered a safe haven nowadays like Japanese Yen.

EURGBP - Wait for confirmed bounce down from 0.93 before selling
EURJPY - Wait for bounce up from 116 then buy 
EURNZD - Wait for confirmed direction near 1.74 
EURUSD - Wait for better long opportunity near 1.11 then buy again
EURAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation around 1.66 - 1.67 before counter-trend selling
EURCAD - Buy near 1.48 or better entry lower
EURCHF - Wait for confirmed bounce up near 1.085 before buying

GBP - counter-trend Buy (short-term)

Another currency in limbo, so still same call as last week: ride short-term buying opportunities or wait for better prices and start selling again because as mentioned here, I remain bearish in the pound thanks to their new PM. Though the UK Parliament is deliberating on replacing Boris Johnson and assign a new PM (again, what's new?), they will be able to do so by November if they gain majority vote. However, by then, Boris will have negotiated a no-deal Brexit with EU by October.

GBPJPY - Wait for confirmed reversal near 126 before buying
GBPNZD - Continue buying from 1.87 or lower
GBPUSD - Wait for confirmed reversal around 1.20 or lower before buying
EURGBP - Wait for confirmed bounce down from 0.93 before selling
GBPAUD - Wait near 1.78
GBPCAD - Wait for confirmed bounce up near 1.60 then buy
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.175

GBPJPY Possible Reversal Soon

Contradictory GBPCAD trade just to serve as hedge now because I failed to close my short-term bullish position last month before Boris won. Sigh.

NZD - Wait

Same as Aussie pairs, just ride the reversals for now because the US-China trade talk is still at play which makes it highly tricky and risky to trade commodity pairs in general.

NZDJPY - Wait for confirmed reversal near 0.67 before buying
NZDUSD - Wait for confirmed direction near 0.64
AUDNZD - Wait for bullish continuation past 1.05
EURNZD - Wait for confirmed direction near 1.74 
GBPNZD - Continue buying from 1.87 or lower
NZDCAD - Wait for confirmed  bottom and bounce up near 0.85 then buy
NZDCHF - Wait for confirmed bounce up near 0.62 before buying

JPY - counter-trend Sell (short-term)

Despite Kuroda still not doing anything about the appreciating yen, I believe (at least in the short-run) that JPY is highly overbought and definitely bound to reverse really soon within the month. So get ready to pounce on that in the short-term while remaining cautious on its safe haven appeal and overall bullish market sentiment (i.e. be ready to get out of short positions quickly).

USDJPY - Wait for confirmed reversal near 104.5 before buying
AUDJPY - Wait for confirmed bounce up before buying, preferably counter-trend buy near 70.5
CADJPY - Wait for confirmed bullish reversal near 79 before buying
CHFJPY - Wait for confirmed bounce up from 1.076 before buying
EURJPY - Wait for bounce up from 116 then buy 
GBPJPY - Wait for confirmed reversal near 126 before buying
NZDJPY - Wait for confirmed reversal near 0.67 before buying

USD - counter-trend Sell

Another currency in limbo, as seen on DXY chart:

If DXY manages to reach 98 by mid this week, it's definitely bound to reverse again on the downside by Friday (or early Thursday). Getting ready to trade on those reversals and enter short-term trading opportunities.

Recent COT futures report shows an interesting net short position, with almost 1/3 of speculators going against the long majority. Same thing goes for retail traders (nonreportable positions). Interesting. It's just a matter of who's more influential and who has deeper pockets to get in position early and hold.

AUDUSD - Wait for confirmed bounce up near 0.67
EURUSD - Wait for better long opportunity near 1.11 then buy again
GBPUSD - Wait for confirmed reversal around 1.20 or lower before buying
NZDUSD - Wait for confirmed direction near 0.64
USDCAD - Wait to rally near 1.34 then sell again
USDCHF - Wait for better sell entry near 0.99
USDJPY - Wait for confirmed reversal near 104.5 before buying
XAUUSD - Wait for next confirmed direction near 1516
XAGUSD - Wait for next confirmed direction near 17
XTIUSD - Wait for confirmed bullish reversal near or past 55 then buy again
USDZAR - Counter-trend sell near 15.5
USDMXN - Sell near 19.6 or higher with initial TP at 19.20

Feature image by Andrew T. of Unsplash