FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Jul 22 - Jul 26, 2019

By Aiza Belle | 23 July 2019 | | Share:

Back in action even if I don't really have a strong opinion this week -- except for EUR bouncing up pretty soon and USD remaining stubbornly flat.

Sometimes I consider using a voice assistant to type this similar to the functionality of this text-to-speech website because it's so much faster than me typing it all here (by the time I finish, the prices have moved and I need to update as quickly as I can while at the same time not forgetting to enter actual trades because we're traders here and not journalists).




This week, overall market has their own contradictory opinions. Up to traders to pick their side.

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

I. FX Trading Ideas for the Week

AUD - Buy

As mentioned here, it's more likely for the Aussie to continue recovering soon especially after the recent RBA minutes merely gave a vague promise to provide stimulus and cut rates only "if needed". Still must monitor the US-China trade talks and be extra careful not to get whipsawed by volatility.

AUDCAD - Wait for better entry near 0.92 when buying or wait for possible reversal @0.935
AUDCHF - Buy near 0.69; will enter more position after bounce confirmation
AUDJPY - Wait for bounce and bullish confirmation past 76.2
AUDNZD - Ride possible short-term bounce play up to 1.05, or wait for next trend confirmation at that price
AUDUSD - Wait for better entry near 0.695-0.70 before buying
EURAUD - Wait for direction confirmation near 1.60
GBPAUD - Wait for direction confirmation near 1.76

AUDCHF Continue Buying

AUDNZD Bounce Play

CAD - Wait

CAD pairs are most likely to remain range-bound and flat this week overall after a lower than expected retail sales figures last week but lower global oil production still in the cards. Still better to wait for bullish continuation in oil and some positive news regarding the US-China trade talks before going long on CAD.

CADCHF - Wait for better buying opportunity near 0.74 or lower
CADJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 82 - 82.5 
EURCAD - Wait for confirmed bounce and better buy entry near 1.45-1.46 before going long
GBPCAD - Wait for confirmed bounce from 1.63 before going long
NZDCAD - Ride possible down from 0.88 or wait for better entry near 0.87
USDCAD - Ride possible short-term bounce play up to 1.33 or wait and sell near that price instead
AUDCAD - Wait for better entry near 0.92 when buying or wait for possible reversal @0.935

CHF - Wait

With one side of the market believing that we're bound to continue enjoying higher equity gains after better than expected company earnings lately (and slowly becoming risk-on but not quite), while the other side remains doom and gloom and believes that things are just getting started (and expecting the financial markets to burn soon), I remain on the fence and my plan is to simply go with whichever side is stronger while taking advantage of short-term trading opportunities.

CHFJPY - Wait for confirmed bounce from 108 - 108.5
EURCHF - Wait for confirmed bounce near 1.108 before going long
GBPCHF - Wait for confirmed bounce near 1.20 before going long
NZDCHF - Buy at better entry point at around 0.66
USDCHF - Wait for confirmed direction near 0.98
AUDCHF - Buy near 0.69; will enter more position after bounce confirmation
CADCHF - Wait for better buying opportunity near 0.74 or lower

EUR - Buy Soon (possible bounce)

After being bearish and reaching support levels, EUR pairs are expected to rally soon (except EURGBP maybe). I don't know why most traders in chat are obsessed with EURUSD since last week, when there are other EUR pairs much fun to trade (note: NOT flat and tricky), like EURCAD and EURNZD -- but wait for NZD trade balance news tomorrow first. If EUR pairs won't fully recover this week, I expect them to do so in the succeeding weeks. So I might actually enter position trades too.

EURGBP - Wait for bounce down near 0.91
EURJPY - Wait for confirmed direction near 121
EURNZD - Wait for confirmed bounce near 1.65
EURUSD - Wait for confirmed bounce near 1.11
EURAUD - Wait for direction confirmation near 1.60
EURCAD - Wait for confirmed bounce and better buy entry near 1.45-1.46 before going long
EURCHF - Wait for confirmed bounce near 1.108 before going long

GBP - Buy Soon (short-term)

For someone who can't follow the geopolitical drama in UK anymore, plus I need to wait for the outcome of recent election regarding who their next PM will be, it's better for me to trade EUR than pound pairs, unless I can manage to scalp during London open.

Edit: Boris wins as new PM expected.

GBPJPY - Wait for bounce up near 130 - 131
GBPNZD - Wait for bounce up from 1.84
GBPUSD - Wait for bounce up near 1.20
EURGBP - Wait for bounce down near 0.91
GBPAUD - Wait for direction confirmation near 1.76
GBPCAD - Wait for confirmed bounce from 1.63 before going long
GBPCHF - Wait for confirmed bounce near 1.20 before going long

NZD - Sell (short-term)

Despite being overall bullish in Kiwi, I think at least for the short-term, NZD pairs will start consolidating, if not bounce down to their current support especially with forecast Trade Balance figure being lower than previous period. Let's see the actual in less than 12 hours from now.

NZDJPY - Buy at better entry point near 0.70
NZDUSD - Wait for better buy entry near 0.665
AUDNZD - Ride possible short-term bounce play up to 1.05, or wait for next trend confirmation at that price
EURNZD - Wait for confirmed bounce near 1.65
GBPNZD - Wait for bounce up from 1.84
NZDCAD - Ride possible down from 0.88 or wait for better entry near 0.87
NZDCHF - Buy at better entry point at around 0.66

JPY - Wait

Similar to CHF above, I have mixed but not particularly strong opinions regarding JPY pairs, except for the fact that they're mainly influenced by other currencies and the recent risk-on sentiment especially in equities.

USDJPY - Wait for confirmed direction near 108
AUDJPY - Wait for bounce and bullish confirmation past 76.2
CADJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 82 - 82.5 
CHFJPY - Wait for confirmed bounce from 108 - 108.5
EURJPY - Wait for confirmed direction near 121
GBPJPY - Wait for bounce up near 130 - 131
NZDJPY - Buy at better entry point near 0.70

USD - Wait

As mentioned in my July 2019 seasonality post, I have no strong bias regarding which direction USD will go in general in the next few weeks -- except for it being flat (if that's considered "direction" at all).

AUDUSD - Wait for better entry near 0.695-0.70 before buying
EURUSD - Wait for confirmed bounce near 1.11
GBPUSD - Wait for bounce up near 1.20
NZDUSD - Wait for better buy entry near 0.665
USDCAD - Ride possible short-term bounce play up to 1.33 or wait and sell near that price instead
USDCHF - Wait for confirmed direction near 0.98
USDJPY - Wait for confirmed direction near 108
XAUUSD - Buy at better entry near 1400 or lower
XAGUSD - Buy at better entry near 15.5 
XTIUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 57.5
USDZAR - Wait for confirmed bounce near 13.8
USDMXN - Wait for confirmed direction near 19

Gold Bullish Breakout

Also as mentioned in my blog update, I won't be posting trading videos anymore to save more time and prevent my PC from overheating. I'm planning to share some of my open trades here which I've also shared on Tradingview and Twitter. I wish I'm able to post my ideas earlier though-- I'll try my very best in the succeeding weeks!💀

Feature image by Omar A. of Unsplash