FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Mar 25 - Mar 29, 2019

By Aiza Belle | 26 March 2019 | | Share:

I still feel a little out of the weather after stupidly manifesting a minor accident last weekend on my way home (& giving a good scare around me with my bloody limbs-- just minor scratches though, nothing serious, but it was night so... lol).

This is a solid reminder that we must be very careful of our thoughts. Only stay on the good and cheery side. 

Eric Ho's video above about manifesting something bad is just right on time and hits the spot.

I remember bashing those fake traders-cum-mentor-scammers in my previous post so that could have contributed. I should just really mind my own business and let those scammers do their thing because their victims need to learn their lesson too on their own.

I'M OUT.

Though my previous post sound logical and whatever, deep inside me while I was typing that, I was also filled with racism against most of those fake gurus (I can't help but see a pattern in them regarding their race and color, but that has really nothing to do at all with trading and scamming. I'm committing fallacy of overgeneralization aside from being too negative, so that's another thing).

From now on, let's fill our hearts with love and forgiveness, let go of hatred to one another. The gospel for today...

Ok whatever, I'm honestly not religious, and I don't mean to offend anyone who are.

So, back to trading.

I still don't have any strong opinion for now regarding where the stocks and USD will go next.

Macroeconomic fundamentals wise and price action wise, it's all downhill soon. But we must not forget that those with deep pockets (i.e. Fed, whale bankers) can continue pumping it up (before dumping). I don't know how long they can keep it afloat though, probably a year or less.

I strongly agree with Ivan, but another mod shared a counter-argument in the Discord chat:

I read the said article in Bloomberg, and that El-Erian dude sounds like typical brokers-- which reminds me of these folks predicting how PSE index will rise to 9,300 by 2018 so don't sell and withdraw, but PSE index plunged to 7,000 instead smh.

Of course, these brokers have a vested interest. What's new?



It's really just a matter of who has more influence and convince the majority. Of course I want it all smooth and actually avoid another recession this time especially our central banks have enough "tools" to do so, and regulations have gotten tighter over the years (except when it comes to over-borrowing-- that's the problem).

As mentioned in the earlier part of this post, we must all be careful of our thoughts because those self-fulfilling prophecies are so damn real.

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

I. FX Trading Ideas for the Week

AUD - Buy (short-term)

Aussie is finally starting to recover or at least rally a bit after recession rumors eased (for now at least). Riding any short-term buying opportunites.

AUDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation @0.9517 then sell with target profit near 0.945
AUDCHF - Buy stop @0.708 with target profit near 0.715
AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation @78.55 then buy with target profit @79.4
AUDNZD - Wait near 1.03
AUDUSD - Wait near 0.713
EURAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.587 then sell with target profit @1.575
GBPAUD - Wait near 1.85

CAD - Buy

After consolidating last week below 60, I think oil will start to rise again to 60 and beyond, and so is CAD because of strong fundamentals favoring that too as mentioned in my seasonality forecast post.

CADCHF - Wait near 0.74
CADJPY - Wait near 82.5
EURCAD - Wait near 1.515
GBPCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.76292 then sell with target profit near 1.75
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.925
USDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.3375 then sell with target profit near 1.325
AUDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation @0.9517 then sell with target profit near 0.945

CHF - Wait

Since the uncertainty in the market especially on equities continues, CHF pairs will most likely be influenced by other currencies' momentum.

CHFJPY - Wait near 110.8
EURCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.12615 then buy with target profit near 1.135
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.31
NZDCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.688 then buy with target profit @0.693
USDCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 0.98945 then sell with target profit nea 0.98
AUDCHF - Buy stop @0.708 with target profit near 0.715
CADCHF - Wait near 0.74

EUR - Wait

Same idea as last week's post. EUR pairs are most likely to recover soon from being too oversold lately, though need to be extra cautious still because of Brexit. If not this week, then it's better to wait and go long in EUR on April instead, we'll see how the price action goes post-Brexit drama delay.

EURGBP - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.86 then buy with target profit @0.87
EURJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 125 then buy with target profit near 127
EURNZD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.64 then buy with target profit near 1.65
EURUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.135 then buy with target profit near 1.145
EURAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.587 then sell with target profit @1.575
EURCAD - Wait near 1.515
EURCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.12615 then buy with target profit near 1.135

GBP - Wait

Since the Brexit delay has further been delayed to April (most likely May given the ruckus among UK's MP), GBP pairs will continue to be volatile yet range-bound since it's uncertain at this point which way it will go: either the EU will grant a longer 1-2 years delay if they're experiencing some troubles in the Euro-zone economy, or EU will suddenly enforce a no-deal hard Brexit if things are going well already in their own economy. It's just a matter of who needs who more at this point. How romantic. Anyway, it's best to wait on the sidelines for the most part, and only scalp quick trading opportunities here and there as they present themselves.

GBPJPY - Wait near 145
GBPNZD - Wait near 1.908
GBPUSD - Wait near 1.32
EURGBP - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.86 then buy with target profit @0.87
GBPAUD - Wait near 1.85
GBPCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.76292 then sell with target profit near 1.75
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.31

NZD - Wait

Still strongly bullish on the Kiwi because of its strong macro economic fundamentals as I keep mentioning in my older posts. Need to wait for better price action and confirmation first though. But if I were working full time and only doing position trading, I will buy and hodl NZD instead of Bitcoin.

NZDJPY - Wait near 76
NZDUSD - Wait near 0.69
AUDNZD - Wait near 1.03
EURNZD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.64 then buy with target profit near 1.65
GBPNZD - Wait near 1.908
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.925
NZDCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.688 then buy with target profit @0.693

JPY - Wait

Still same idea as last week. Better to wait for confirmations now first, and possibly ride any short-term trading opportunities until I get a better picture of where S&P 500 is heading next.

USDJPY - Wait near 110
AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation @78.55 then buy with target profit @79.4
CADJPY - Wait near 82.5
CHFJPY - Wait near 110.8
EURJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 125 then buy with target profit near 127
GBPJPY - Wait near 145
NZDJPY - Wait near 76

USD - Wait

Overall I'm bearish on USD for reasons mentioned at the start of this post and also last week's post. But like JPY, need to wait for confirmations first.

AUDUSD - Wait near 0.713
EURUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.135 then buy with target profit near 1.145
GBPUSD - Wait near 1.32
NZDUSD - Wait near 0.69
USDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.3375 then sell with target profit near 1.325
USDCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 0.98945 then sell with target profit nea 0.98
USDJPY - Wait near 110
XAUUSD - Wait near 1317
XAGUSD - Wait near 15.5
XTIUSD - Wait near 59
USDZAR - Wait near 14.34
USDMXN - Wait for bullish confirmation past 19 then buy with target profit near 19.4

Feature image by Mat R. of Unsplash