FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Mar 11 - Mar 15, 2019

By Aiza Belle | 11 March 2019 | | Share:

Continue building the right foundation ^^

First off, I'm so glad that my channel I've mentioned the other week which reached the new minimum threshold in Youtube had finally been accepted in the Youtube Partner Program and also now being monetizable. Since it's just a small channel, not really expecting that much. But it's still a nice way of building another passive income-- especially with the Humpty Dumpty uncertainty now in stocks:

Whether it will continue to rise conservatively in the next few weeks (especially with some whales trying their best to keep it afloat), or something's really fishy.

Since short selling is still not allowed in the Philippines, I'm stuck with just waiting and not taking any position in our local stocks.



With that said, I'll start demo trading US stocks by next month and if it goes well, I'll search for a good broker and trade US stocks too so I'll have other options. Also looking into this 1 euro homes deal-- I wonder if they accept buyers outside Europe.

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

I. FX Trading Ideas for the Week

AUD - Wait

Last week's economic figures for AUD were mixed, with disappointing GDP and retail sales, but higher than expected trading balance. However, Australia still has its housing issue, and with China's trading balance being way lower than forecasted, and gold still not recovering from its drop the other week, it's best to wait in the sidelines. AUD pairs will most likely go ranging this week especially the oversold ones, and I'll simply ride any possible short-term rally, especially once US and China come to a new trading agreement (hopefully Trump won't walk away like he did with North Korea).

AUDCAD - Wait near 0.945
AUDCHF - Wait near 0.71
AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 78.6 then buy with target profit @79.5
AUDNZD - Wait near 1.035
AUDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.70579 then buy with target profit near 0.712-0.715
EURAUD - Wait near 1.59
GBPAUD - Wait near 1.85

CAD - Wait

Still waiting for a bullish confirmation in oil. Expecting it to rise up to at least 60 especially with this and this. Need to be cautious though because Norway is recently planning to sell off its oil position-- most likely they have some insider info, if not, a more intelligent guess than what I have lol. But I think it's definitely related to the forecast that US will soon overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as a major oil exported in 5-10 years time. Since that's just a long-term forecast and no actual basis yet now, I still continue to be bullish in both CAD and oil within the year at least, and also for this month.

CADCHF - Wait near 0.75
CADJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 83 then buy with target profit near 84.5
EURCAD - Wait near 1.51
GBPCAD - Wait near 1.75
NZDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.912 then sell with target profit near 0.902
USDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.338 then sell with target profit near 1.325
AUDCAD - Wait near 0.945

CHF - Wait

Still in waiting mode in CHF pairs in general given the mixed outlook it's currently in: questionable S&P 500 performance recently as shown in the chart above, and surprising dovishness of ECB last week.

CHFJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 110.5 then buy with target profit @112
EURCHF - Wait near 1.135
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.32
NZDCHF - Wait for possible bounce from 1.69 then sell with target profit @1.681
USDCHF - Wait for bounce near 1.013 then sell with target profit @1.00
AUDCHF - Wait near 0.71
CADCHF - Wait near 0.75

EUR - Wait

ECB's Draghi shocked the market last week with its sudden dovishness-- which come to think of it, shouldn't be a surprise anymore given the less hawkish stance of the Fed and EU needs to adjust to that so EUR won't appreciate that much and affect the Eurozone's exports (similar tactic with Japan). Not to mention some other political and economic instability in the Eurozone as I've mentioned in the seasonality forecast for March.

EURGBP - Wait near 0.86
EURJPY - Wait near 125
EURNZD - Wait near 1.64
EURUSD - Wait near 1.24
EURAUD - Wait near 1.59
EURCAD - Wait near 1.51
EURCHF - Wait near 1.135

GBP - Wait

With the UK's GDP and also Parliament Brexit vote coming up in a few days, it's best to wait in the sidelines for now. Possibly will ride the short-term rallies some GBP pairs are currently experiencing thanks to last minute EU concessions.

GBPJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 146 then buy with target profit @148
GBPNZD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.92 then buy with target profit @1.935
GBPUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.311 then buy with target profit @1.325
EURGBP - Wait near 0.86
GBPAUD - Wait near 1.85
GBPCAD - Wait near 1.75
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.32

NZD - Wait

Though I still have a bullish bias in the Kiwi like the past few months, need to follow the other currencies' stronger momentum such as the GBP and CAD.

NZDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 76.15 then buy with target profit near 75
NZDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.685 then buy with target profit @0.69
AUDNZD - Wait near 1.035
EURNZD - Wait near 1.64
GBPNZD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.92 then buy with target profit @1.935
NZDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.912 then sell with target profit near 0.902
NZDCHF - Wait for possible bounce from 1.69 then sell with target profit @1.681

JPY - Sell

Though market in general is still currently risk-off considering the possible sudden drop in S&P 500 (unless Fed and some other whales sneak in and keep the equities afloat), as long as the US dollar still has room to climb (more so after ECB's dovishness and disappointing Chinese trade balance last week), then I'll continue riding the JPY's bearishness.

USDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 111.36 then buy with target profit near 112
AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 78.6 then buy with target profit @79.5
CADJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 83 then buy with target profit near 84.5
CHFJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 110.5 then buy with target profit @112
EURJPY - Wait near 125
GBPJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 146 then buy with target profit @148
NZDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 76.15 then buy with target profit near 75

USD - Wait

Either the USD Index will continue to rise up to 98.45 or suddenly drop this week-- best to wait for confirmation, and more clues and updates regarding the US-China trade negotiations. Overall I still have a bearish bias on USD especially with China gaining strategic alliances indirectly through its lending programs. EU plans to create its own global payment system to that will rival America's SWIFT.

AUDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.70579 then buy with target profit near 0.712-0.715
EURUSD - Wait near 1.24
GBPUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.311 then buy with target profit @1.325
NZDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.685 then buy with target profit @0.69
USDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.338 then sell with target profit near 1.325
USDCHF - Wait for bounce near 1.013 then sell with target profit @1.00
USDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 111.36 then buy with target profit near 112
XAUUSD - Wait near 1290
XAGUSD - Wait near 15.24
XTIUSD - Wait for bullish continuation past 57, then buy with target profit @60
USDZAR - Wait for bearish continuation past 14.26 then sell with target profit near 14
USDMXN - Wait near 19.40

II. Last Week's Performance and This Week's Charts