FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Feb 18 - Feb 22, 2019

By Aiza Belle | 18 February 2019 | | Share:

While almost every vlogger I see is now doing the celery challenge, here I am indulging in different variations of cake and trying to stay focused in trading and ignoring a bunch of WIP videos I still haven't done editing for my other Youtube channels. 😢

I even still have one that should have been uploaded before Chinese New Year, and now it's already past Valentines Day lol.



Ugh. Focus!

Back to trading.

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

I. FX Trading Ideas for the Week

AUD - Wait

With iron ore and even gold climbing up continuously recently and positive economic numbers from China, expecting for AUD to recover a bit. But still need to wait in the sidelines until the AUD economic news are out this week, and also still be as cautious as last week for any new updates regarding US-China deal-- there's a rumor that China is currently "winning" so that's another plus for the Aussie.

AUDCAD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.94755 then buy with target profit @0.95-0.952
AUDCHF - Wait near 0.718
AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 79.3 then buy with target profit @80
AUDNZD - Wait for possible bounce from 1.04 then buy with target profit near 1.05
AUDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.7178 then buy with target profit near 0.725
EURAUD - Wait near 1.585
GBPAUD - Wait near 1.80555

CAD - Wait

While we wait for confirmation if oil will breakout to 60, or continue ranging 52-55 zone this week, it's still best to wait in the sidelines for CAD pairs. I'm definitely biased on the up side in the long run especially with this and this.

CADCHF - Wait near 0.757
CADJPY - Wait near 83.6
EURCAD - Wait near 1.50
GBPCAD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.715 then buy with target profit near 1.73
NZDCAD - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.91251 then buy with target profit @0.92
USDCAD - Wait near 1.3228
AUDCAD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.94755 then buy with target profit @0.95-0.952

CHF - Wait

Best to wait in the sidelines for most CHF pairs, while the price action in S&P500 and DXY is playing out, since though they're more likely gonna turn out to be in favor with a bullish CHF as last week, the recent political risks in the Euro zone may dampen any bullish CHF momentum anytime.

CHFJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 110.364 then buy with target profit near 111
EURCHF - Wait near 1.135
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.30
NZDCHF - Wait near 0.69
USDCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.00282 with target profit near 0.995-1.00
AUDCHF - Wait near 0.718
CADCHF - Wait near 0.757

EUR - Wait

Though fundamentally, it's best to wait or go short on EUR pairs especially with the political risks the Euro zone is having right now (add the possible extension of Brexit without having to enforce a "No Deal" and that's gonna be bearish for EUR too), technically EUR pairs have been a little oversold, so there might also be some day trading opportunities to ride any possible rally. Overall, it's best to wait in the sidelines.

EURGBP - Wait near 0.875
EURJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 125.6 then buy with target profit near 126.5
EURNZD - Wait near 1.65
EURUSD - Wait near 1.135
EURAUD - Wait near 1.585
EURCAD - Wait near 1.50
EURCHF - Wait near 1.135

GBP - Buy (short-term)

Still bearish overall in GBP for reasons mentioned in my previous posts, and continuous ruckus about Brexit means a halt in UK's progress and likelihood of this worsening over time unless PM May manages to delay the Brexit deadline this March, or simply go Bremain. Some GBP pairs are already oversold though, so might enter short-term long trades on them.

GBPJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 143.5 then buy with target profit near 145
GBPNZD - Wait near 1.88
GBPUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.295 then buy with target profit near 1.305
EURGBP - Wait near 0.875
GBPAUD - Wait near 1.80555
GBPCAD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.715 then buy with target profit near 1.73
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.30

NZD - Buy

Though NZD pairs consolidated after struggling to breakout their current resistance levels, still getting ready to ride the bounce up and go long again especially with Kiwi's solid fundamentals.

NZDJPY - Wait near 76
NZDUSD - Wait near 0.68818
AUDNZD - Wait for possible bounce from 1.04 then buy with target profit near 1.05
EURNZD - Wait near 1.65
GBPNZD - Wait near 1.88
NZDCAD - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.91251 then buy with target profit @0.92
NZDCHF - Wait near 0.69

JPY - Sell (short-term)

Continue to go bearish on JPY like last week, so buy most JPY pairs except for NZD and USD which are reaching overbought/resistance levels right now.

USDJPY - Wait near 110.5
AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 79.3 then buy with target profit @80
CADJPY - Wait near 83.6
CHFJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 110.364 then buy with target profit near 111
EURJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 125.6 then buy with target profit near 126.5
GBPJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 143.5 then buy with target profit near 145
NZDJPY - Wait near 76

USD - Sell

Fundamentally, US-China talk might not go in favor of the US-- also still eyeing this thing below (which I also posted in last week's trading idea).

Source: Bloomberg

Technically speaking, DXY is almost reaching its current resistance level. Though it still has room to continue climbing up in the short-run, it's the last end of the wave already, and it's more likely to slide down to 95-- if not within Q1 2019, at least by summer this year.

AUDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.7178 then buy with target profit near 0.725
EURUSD - Wait near 1.135
GBPUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.295 then buy with target profit near 1.305
NZDUSD - Wait near 0.68818
USDCAD - Wait near 1.3228
USDCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.00282 with target profit near 0.995-1.00
USDJPY - Wait near 110.5
XAUUSD - Wait for bullish continuation past 1330 then buy with target profit near 1345
XAGUSD - Wait near 15.85
XTIUSD - Wait for bullish continuation past 56.5, then buy with target profit near 60
USDZAR - Wait for bearish confirmation past 14 then sell with target profit near 13.7
USDMXN - Wait near 19.19

Feature photo from Brooke L. of Unsplash