FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Feb 11 - Feb 15, 2019

By Aiza Belle | 12 February 2019 | | Share:

Advanced Happy V-day everyone!^^

Wishing a wonderful dating experience for fellow traders this year and hopefully not mirror the current market's mixed signals. *sigh*

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

I. FX Trading Ideas for the Week

AUD - Wait

Though the Aussie now may be fundamentally dovish as mentioned in the previous post, as well as the continuous slide in house prices recently (which are way overpriced anyway in my opinion especially with this), I'm siding more on AUD pairs rallying a bit soon because price action, their current bowl chart patterns, and February seasonality all support their recovery. Most likely will just day trade any bullish opportunities, and still remain cautious from getting whipsawed since AUD's fundamentals and technicals aren't aligned, not to mention that prices might go more volatile in the next few weeks especially if no deal is finalized between the US-China trade talks.

AUDCAD - Wait near 0.94
AUDCHF - Wait near 0.71
AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 78.5 then buy with target profit near 79.5
AUDNZD - Wait near 1.05
AUDUSD - Wait near 0.705
EURAUD - Wait near 1.60
GBPAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.81659 then sell with target profit near 1.80

CAD - Wait

Oil continues to test the 55 resistance level. As long as there's isn't a confirmed bullish breakout yet in oil, best to stay in waiting mode for CAD. In the long-run, still bullish overall in both oil and CAD. Despite not feeling the effects yet of OPEC's supply cut last December, there's a new rumor that US shale producers may slow down in their drilling this year, which isn't actually surprising considering the more conservative risk-off stance of investors this year.

CADCHF - Wait near 0.75
CADJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 83.2 then buy with target profit near 84
EURCAD - Wait near 1.50
GBPCAD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.71550 then buy with target profit near 1.73
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.895
USDCAD - Wait near 1.33
AUDCAD - Wait near 0.94

CHF - Buy

Though still bullish overall on CHF, especially with USD index possibly reversing down once its touches the near 98 resistance area and the S&P500 hanging in uncertainty, need to wait for confirmation first and breakout from their current ranges.

CHFJPY - Wait for bounce from 109.5 or bullish confirmation past 110.308 then buy with target profit near 111
EURCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.13 then sell with target profit @1.122 - 125
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.295
NZDCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.68 then buy with target profit @0.69
USDCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.002 then sell with target profit near 0.995
AUDCHF - Wait near 0.71
CADCHF - Wait near 0.75

EUR - Wait

With ECB suddenly going dovish too like the Aussie's RBA, will remain on the sideline except for a few day trading opportunities to buy/sell. Overall it's best to wait while fundamentals, technicals and sentiments all send mixed signals.

EURGBP - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.88 then buy with target profit @0.89
EURJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 125 then buy with target profit @126
EURNZD - Wait near 1.675
EURUSD - Wait for bearish past 1.14 then sell with target profit @1.13
EURAUD - Wait near 1.60
EURCAD - Wait near 1.50
EURCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.13 then sell with target profit @1.122 - 125

GBP - Sell

Still bearish overall in GBP for reasons mentioned in my previous posts, and continuous ruckus about Brexit means a halt in UK's progress and likelihood of this worsening over time unless PM May manages to delay the Brexit deadline this March, or simply go Bremain. Some GBP pairs are already oversold though, so might enter short-term long trades on them.

GBPJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 142.5 then buy with target profit near 144
GBPNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation near 1.90 then sell with target profit @1.89
GBPUSD - Wait for bounce from 1.28 or bullish confirmation past 1.29 then buy with target profit @1.305
EURGBP - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.88 then buy with target profit @0.89
GBPAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.81659 then sell with target profit near 1.80
GBPCAD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.71550 then buy with target profit near 1.73
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.295

NZD - Buy

Though NZD pairs consolidated after struggling to breakout their current resistance levels, still getting ready to ride the bounce up and go long again especially with Kiwi's solid fundamentals.

NZDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 74.6 then buy with target profit near 75.5
NZDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.676 then buy with target profit @0.682
AUDNZD - Wait near 1.05
EURNZD - Wait near 1.675
GBPNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation near 1.90 then sell with target profit @1.89
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.895
NZDCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.68 then buy with target profit @0.69

JPY - Sell (short-term)

Though markets are still risk-off, unlike CHF, JPY's previous bullishness has been dampened by the news about its fake Abenomics (also mentioned in the video below). Current price action also supports a weaker JPY.

USDJPY - Wait for bounce near 111 then sell with target profit @110
AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 78.5 then buy with target profit near 79.5
CADJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 83.2 then buy with target profit near 84
CHFJPY - Wait for bounce from 109.5 or bullish confirmation past 110.308 then buy with target profit near 111
EURJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 125 then buy with target profit @126
GBPJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 142.5 then buy with target profit near 144
NZDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 74.6 then buy with target profit near 75.5

USD - Wait

Waiting on the sidelines to see how both USD Index and the S&P500 will play out soon (US CPI news also coming soon during the middle of this week). Though I actually have a bearish bias on USD especially after this, won't short any USD pairs yet until I get enough confirmation that it's recovery is over and a bounce down is already due.

Source: Bloomberg

AUDUSD - Wait near 0.705
EURUSD - Wait for bearish past 1.14 then sell with target profit @1.13
GBPUSD - Wait for bounce from 1.28 or bullish confirmation past 1.29 then buy with target profit @1.305
NZDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.676 then buy with target profit @0.682
USDCAD - Wait near 1.33
USDCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.002 then sell with target profit near 0.995
USDJPY - Wait for bounce near 111 then sell with target profit @110
XAUUSD - Wait for bullish continuation past 1313 then buy with target profit @1324
XAGUSD - Wait for bullish continuation past 15.8 then buy with initial target profit @16
XTIUSD - Wait for bullish continuation past 53, then buy with target profit near 54.5
USDZAR - Wait for bounce from 14 then sell with target profit @13.5 - 13.6
USDMXN - Wait for bullish continuation past 19.335 then buy with target profit @19.5, or wait for bounce from 19.5

Feature image by Debbie H. of Unsplash