FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Jan 28 - Feb 01, 2019

By Aiza Belle | 29 January 2019 | | Share:

I'm far from being a tree-hugging hippie, but still appalled at how the national parks such as this and this, have not only been neglected but also vandalized during the recent US government shutdown as an expression of defiance and boredom. Being the longest shutdown in history, I actually considered it lasting for a year and the US transitioning into anarchy (the ultimate dream for those living the gray man lifestyle, am I right?).



Thank goodness it's starting to go back to normal now (I can finally update my own Commitment of Traders indicator, just in time for February), and the Republicans themselves will do their best to block Trump's tantrums and another government shutdown.

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

I. FX Trading Ideas for the Week

AUD - Wait

With NAB suddenly increasing its mortgage rates last week to catch up among its peers (instead of delaying it to 2020 as what it planned initially), there's less likelihood now for the RBA to raise rates which is seen as dovish. There's also a rumor that RBA will in fact cut rates instead later this year. After the strong nosedive last week, I'm in waiting mode now while most AUD pairs are consolidating, except for a few with defined trends because of stronger momentum from other currencies (i.e. CAD, USD and GBP).

AUDCAD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.953 then buy with target profit @0.96
AUDCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.705 then sell with target profit near 0.698
AUDJPY - Wait near 78.3
AUDNZD - Wait near 1.05
AUDUSD - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.71867 then buy with initial target profit @0.724, and possible trail SL and add 2nd target profit near 0.72814
EURAUD - Wait near 1.60
GBPAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.83 then sell with target profit near 1.818

CAD - Wait

Though I'm still bullish overall in oil especially with more sanctions coming in like this one on Venezuela, I'll stay on the sidelines for now at least until oil manages to break the 55 resistance before buying oil and CAD again.

CADCHF - Wait near 0.75
CADJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 81.629 then sell with target profit near 80.5
EURCAD - Wait near 1.515
GBPCAD - Wait near 1.75
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.90810
USDCAD - Wait near 1.3255
AUDCAD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.953 then buy with target profit @0.96

CHF - Wait

With US government shutdown finally over and stocks slowly climbing its way to recovery (or is it really?), the market might go back to being risk-on soon (barring any end of truce regarding US-China trade tensions though).

CHFJPY - Buy with target profit near 111
EURCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 1.13472 then buy with target profit @1.14
GBPCHF - Wait for bounce from 1.32 or bearish confirmation past 1.30 then sell with initial target profit @1.29
NZDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.68 then buy with target profit near 0.69
USDCHF - Wait near 0.99
AUDCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.705 then sell with target profit near 0.698
CADCHF - Wait near 0.75

EUR - Buy

If there's anyone who will benefit from a Brexit extension, it's EUR and not GBP. Though GBP continues to rally now after the risk of having a no-deal Brexit is gone, this is actually better for EUR overall because any delay in Brexit means a low-key Bremain which the markets have finally realized during the later part last week. If EUR breaks some key resistance levels this week especially after PMI and GDP news coming up soon, will continue to buy EUR pairs, but until then will wait in the sidelines first.

EURGBP - Wait for bullish confirmation near 0.875 then buy with target profit @0.89
EURJPY - Wait for bullish continuation past 125.1 then buy with target profit near 126
EURNZD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.67625 then buy with target profit near 1.69 
EURUSD - Wait near 1.145
EURAUD - Wait near 1.60
EURCAD - Wait near 1.515
EURCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 1.13472 then buy with target profit @1.14

GBP - Wait

After the sudden reaction on the upside, GBP pairs are most likely going to be highly volatile as the market anticipates and reacts to these upcoming events soon. Overall, I'm bearish on GBP even if it's technically almost oversold, but it's best to wait in the sidelines unless a small window of opportunity presents itself to get in and out of the trades quickly and profitably (i.e. scalping, day trading)

GBPJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 143.211 then sell with target profit near 141
GBPNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.91856 then sell with target profit @1.905
GBPUSD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.31161 then sell with target profit near 1.30
EURGBP - Wait for bullish confirmation near 0.875 then buy with target profit @0.89
GBPAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.83 then sell with target profit near 1.818
GBPCAD - Wait near 1.75
GBPCHF - Wait for bounce from 1.32 or bearish confirmation past 1.30 then sell with initial target profit @1.29

NZD - Wait

Still bullish overall in NZD especially with slightly better than expected CPI figures last week, trade balance report as well. But since NZD pairs have been either overbought or couldn't break some key resistance levels a week or 2 ago, best to wait in the sidelines until their recent consolidation ends, and a good price action and bullish confirmation show up once more.

NZDJPY - Wait near 74.555
NZDUSD - Wait near 1.683
AUDNZD - Wait near 1.05
EURNZD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.67625 then buy with target profit near 1.69 
GBPNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.91856 then sell with target profit @1.905
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.90810
NZDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.68 then buy with target profit near 0.69

JPY - Wait

Though the US government shutdown is already over and there's still US-China trade truce, there's still a looming uncertainty in the market as illustrated in the S&P 500 chart:

If S&P 500 manages to break the 2800 -2900 resistance and even surpass the 2900 2018 high, it's safe to say that the the stock market already bottomed and on it's way to recovery. But if it starts bouncing from 2700 and sliding down, I'm expecting it to nosedive up to at least 2128 (2016 high).

If I follow the elliot wave theory, the latter is more likely to happen. If I use the astrological phases indicator (which I mentioned earlier to be 90% accurate for indexes like S&P500), this should have dropped earlier, back when we had the blood moon eclipse --but it didn't. So some whale definitely keeps it afloat (probably the Fed). They keep it hush-hush of course, similar to what they do with gold and silver.

Back to JPY, best to wait for further confirmation especially on the market's risk appetite which is directly correlated to S&P500 and US dollar, among other factors, before trading JPY pairs.

USDJPY - Wait near 109.207
AUDJPY - Wait near 78.3
CADJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 81.629 then sell with target profit near 80.5
CHFJPY - Buy with target profit near 111
EURJPY - Wait for bullish continuation past 125.1 then buy with target profit near 126
GBPJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 143.211 then sell with target profit near 141
NZDJPY - Wait near 74.555

USD - Wait

With Fed being less hawkish and US government shutdown effects already priced in, best to be in waiting mode at least until I get a clearer picture of where DXY is headed next (either it will go ranging between 95-98) or start sliding down to 93:

AUDUSD - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.71867 then buy with initial target profit @0.724, and possible trail SL and add 2nd target profit near 0.72814
EURUSD - Wait near 1.145
GBPUSD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.31161 then sell with target profit near 1.30
NZDUSD - Wait near 1.683
USDCAD - Wait near 1.3255
USDCHF - Wait near 0.99
USDJPY - Wait near 109.207
XAUUSD - Wait near 1305
XAGUSD - Wait near 15.75
XTIUSD - Wait near 51
USDZAR - Wait near 13.65
USDMXN - Wait near 19

Feature photo by Isaac Q. of Unsplash.