FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Jan 14 - 18, 2019

By Aiza Belle | 14 January 2019 | | Share:

This week is a perfect excuse to get extra sleep-- at least until most of the medium to high risk news are out.

Or catch up in doing other things like side projects, Netflix shows, anime, and gaming (ahem). Unlike last week where there were a bunch of trading opportunities, this week is filled with mixed signals and uncertainty. The only ones I'm somewhat confident to trade so far are AUD, NZD and oil, possible gold too (we'll see). However they too can be affected with any possible changes in the US sentiment, and trading relations with China, so still need to be extra cautious especially with the upcoming G20 meetings later part this week.

I feel like it's better for me to post ideas later part this week, especially after the Parliament vote on Brexit (I'm expecting noise and volatility). However, as an attempt to stick on a fixed posting schedule, here goes my ideas so far, but highly probable for these to change though during the middle of the week.

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

I. FX Trading Ideas for the Week

AUD - Buy

With China's Trading Balance both on the green and higher than forecast earlier, and recent better than expected figures for Australia's retail sales and inflation gauge, I continue to be bullish on AUD.

AUDCAD - Wait for possible bounce near 0.96
AUDCHF - Buy stop @0.71072 with target profit near 0.715 - 0.72
AUDJPY - Wait for bullish continuation past 78.5 then buy with target profit @80
AUDNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.05423, then sell with target profit near 1.0476 - 1.05
AUDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.725 then buy with target profit @0.735
EURAUD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.58719 then sell with target profit near 1.57
GBPAUD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.78 then sell with target profit @1.765

CAD - Wait

Though I'm still bullish overall in oil, I'll wait in the sidelines first until I get good confirmation from CAD pairs this time. May or may not open trades depending on my trigger levels below, but will close them immediately before CAD's CPI news on Friday.

CADCHF - Wait for bounce from 0.735 or buy past 0.74255 with target profit near 0.75
CADJPY - Wait near 82
EURCAD - Wait; most likely will continue to go ranging between 1.515 - 1.53
GBPCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.69874 then sell with target profit @1.68 - 1.685
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.90500
USDCAD - Wait near 1.32562
AUDCAD - Wait for possible bounce near 0.96

CHF - Wait

The signals for CHF are mixed for now despite the overall risk-off sentiment in the market. Will stay in the sidelines for now.

CHFJPY - Wait near 110.5
EURCHF - Wait for bounce or bearish confirmation @1.125
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.26422
NZDCHF - Wait near 0.67
USDCHF - Wait near 0.98500
AUDCHF - Buy stop @0.71072 with target profit near 0.715 - 0.72
CADCHF - Wait for bounce from 0.735 or buy past 0.74255 with target profit near 0.75

EUR - Wait

EUR continues to consolidate at the start of this week. Might ride that in some pairs, however it's best to wait it out for majority of EUR pairs at least until ECB Draghi's speech on tomorrow.

EURGBP - Wait near 0.89
EURJPY - Wait near 124
EURNZD - Sell stop @1.68 with target profit @1.672
EURUSD - Wait near 1.14593 - 1.15
EURAUD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.58719 then sell with target profit near 1.57
EURCAD - Wait; most likely will continue to go ranging between 1.515 - 1.53
EURCHF - Wait for bounce or bearish confirmation @1.125

GBP - Wait

Still on wait mode regarding the Parliament's vote on Brexit until tomorrow. GBP is slowly recovering with the expectation that the Parliament will continue to reject Brexit, or at least be able to negotiate further extension. Regardless, I still have a bearish bias overall in GBP but it's best to wait until the votes are out to avoid getting whipsawed since GBP pairs will surely go highly volatile.

GBPJPY - Wait; most likely will continue ranging between 137.5 - 139.5
GBPNZD - Wait near 1.887
GBPUSD - Wait near 1.284
EURGBP - Wait near 0.89
GBPAUD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.78 then sell with target profit @1.765
GBPCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.69874 then sell with target profit @1.68 - 1.685
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.26422

NZD - Wait

Still bullish on NZD based on its good economic news reported previously. However, there's a possibility that some of its pairs might consolidate this week after reaching certain key levels (as indicated in the charts in the video version of this post below). Best to wait until at least the Business Confidence news is out later.

NZDJPY - Buy stop @73.9 with target profit @74.5
NZDUSD - Wait near 0.68
AUDNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.05423, then sell with target profit near 1.0476 - 1.05
EURNZD - Sell stop @1.68 with target profit @1.672
GBPNZD - Wait near 1.887
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.90500
NZDCHF - Wait near 0.67

JPY - Wait

Though I'm actually still bullish in JPY now like last week, I'm getting mixed signals similar to CHF. I'll wait for now until a better opportunity to short JPY pairs comes. Will continue riding the stronger bullish momentum of AUD and NZD though.

USDJPY - Wait near 108
AUDJPY - Wait for bullish continuation past 78.5 then buy with target profit @80
CADJPY - Wait near 82
CHFJPY - Wait near 110.5
EURJPY - Wait near 124
GBPJPY - Wait; most likely will continue ranging between 137.5 - 139.5
NZDJPY - Buy stop @73.9 with target profit @74.5

USD - Wait

Nothing has really changed so far from last week's bearish sentiment on USD, and the factors triggering that are still in place (i.e. Hawkish Fed, US government shutdown). Will most likely wait until at least USD's manufacturing index news this Thursday before trading USD pairs again.

AUDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.725 then buy with target profit @0.735
EURUSD - Wait near 1.14593 - 1.15
GBPUSD - Wait near 1.284
NZDUSD - Wait near 0.68
USDCAD - Wait near 1.32562
USDCHF - Wait near 0.98500
USDJPY - Wait near 108
XAUUSD - Wait for confirmed bounce near 1300, then sell with target profit between 1273 - 1280
XAGUSD - Wait near 15.6
XTIUSD - Buy stop @51.6 with target profit @54
USDZAR - Wait near 14
USDMXN - Wait near 19.2

II. Last Week's Performance and This Week's Charts