FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Dec 17 - 21, 2018

By Aiza Belle | 17 December 2018 | | Share:

Expecting the market to start getting a little muted this week with the upcoming Christmas season soon.


I won't be posting ideas and trading for the next 2 weeks, and will be spending more time noobing in Python, analyzing the futures & equities market, laughing at cryptocurrencies, and playing video games (I don't even know where to start here: I'm having some hilarious moments with the new Get Famous expansion pack in Sims 4, but want to die some more in the new Don't Starve: Hamlet early access because them cute pigmen are so worth it! Also looking forward to try out some good old games such as Contradiction and The Guild). Recently been catching up on both Youtube and anime as well (my SO and I are currently obsessed with Zombieland Saga and Jojo's Bizarre Adventures) 😄

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

AUD - Wait

Most likely will continue to wait on the sidelines overall for AUD pairs especially with the general risk-off sentiment in the markets, and continued geopolitical risks regarding US-China "truce".

AUDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.957 and sell up to 0.95

AUDCHF - Wait near 0.71

AUDJPY - Wait near 81

AUDNZD - Wait near 1.055

AUDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.71910 then buy up to 0.72400

EURAUD - Wait near 1.58

GBPAUD - Wait near 1.75

CAD - Wait

Was actually surprised that oil and CAD haven't rallied up yet after Russia agreed to higher than desired production cut during the OPEC meeting recently. Turned out, the market is still taking in the recent oversupply news. Still bullish on both in the long-run, but for now best to stay on waiting mode.

CADCHF - Wait near 0.74500

CADJPY - Wait near 84.25

EURCAD - Wait for bounce near 1.525 then sell up to 1.50 - 1.51

GBPCAD - Wait near 1.70

NZDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.90729 then sell up to 0.895 - 0.90

USDCAD - Wait for bounce near 1.34 then sell up to 1.328 - 1.33

AUDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.957 and sell up to 0.95

CHF - Buy

Unless the market panics early, S&P 500 will continue to remain near its 2600 support and might even rally soon, then highly likely to crash by February next year (as mentioned in my previous post). With that said, slowly starting to get ready going bullish on CHF especially with the current risk-off sentiment in the market as well.

CHFJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 114 then buy up to 115

EURCHF - Wait near 1.12573

GBPCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.25 then sell up to 1.235

NZDCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 0.675 then sell up to 0.665 - 0.67

USDCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 0.99 then sell up to 0.9865

AUDCHF - Wait near 0.71

CADCHF - Wait near 0.74500

EUR - Wait

EUR pairs are in consolidation mode for now, so I'll continue to wait in the sidelines. However, I've set up alerts at the fib levels near the figures indicated below for any possible breakouts after the holiday season.

EURGBP - Wait near 0.90

EURJPY - Wait near 1.28

EURNZD - Wait near 1.67

EURUSD - Wait near 1.30

EURAUD - Wait near 1.58

EURCAD - Wait for bounce near 1.525 then sell up to 1.50 - 1.51

EURCHF - Wait near 1.12573

GBP - Sell

Still bearish on GBP overall until official Brexit on March 2019, as explained in my previous post.

GBPJPY - Wait for bearish continuation past 142 then sell up to near 140

GBPNZD - Wait near 1.85

GBPUSD - Wait near 125 - 126

EURGBP - Wait near 0.90

GBPAUD - Wait near 1.75

GBPCAD - Wait near 1.70

GBPCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.25 then sell up to 1.235

NZD - Sell (short-term)

The Kiwi seems to be starting to reverse on key resistance levels lately, and with taking into consideration its seasonality for this month, might short some pairs (at least in the short-run).

NZDJPY - Wait for bearish continuation past 76.75 then sell up to 75.86

NZDUSD - Wait near 0.68

AUDNZD - Wait near 1.055

EURNZD - Wait near 1.67

GBPNZD - Wait near 1.85

NZDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.90729 then sell up to 0.895 - 0.90

NZDCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 0.675 then sell up to 0.665 - 0.67

JPY - Buy

Similar to CHF above, with markets currently risk-off, S&P 500 just barely hanging now, the risk of the Fed slowing down its rate hikes by next year, it's a good time to be bullish on JPY with its seasonality suggesting the same (at least for this month).

USDJPY - Wait for bearish continuation past 112.88 then sell up to 112.5

AUDJPY - Wait near 81

CADJPY - Wait near 84.25

CHFJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 114 then buy up to 115

EURJPY - Wait near 1.28

GBPJPY - Wait for bearish continuation past 142 then sell up to near 140

NZDJPY - Wait for bearish continuation past 76.75 then sell up to 75.86

USD - Wait

Though I'm recently bearish overall in USD, will wait on the Fed's 2019 outlook right after its upcoming rate hike on Wednesday, and see if my current bias will change.

AUDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.71910 then buy up to 0.72400

EURUSD - Wait near 1.30

GBPUSD - Wait near 125 - 126

NZDUSD - Wait near 0.68

USDCAD - Wait for bounce near 1.34 then sell up to 1.328 - 1.33

USDCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 0.99 then sell up to 0.9865

USDJPY - Wait for bearish continuation past 112.88 then sell up to 112.5

XAUUSD - Wait for bullish continuation past 1242 then buy up to 1250

XAGUSD - Wait near 14.60

XTIUSD - Wait near 50

USDZAR - Wait for bounce at 14.4629 then sell up to 14.2

USDMXN - Wait near 20

Feature image by zainab m. of Unsplash.