FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Dec 10 - 14, 2018

By Aiza Belle | 10 December 2018 | | Share:

My feelings when Russia agreed to Saudi Arabia cutting oil production to more than 1M barrels.

Also I just found out that they use oil on pancakes in ads, not honey, because honey is absorbed so much faster while oil isn't. Ok, good to know. 

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

AUD - Wait

Though technically speaking, it's possible that the Aussie pairs will rally this week after the drop last week, I think it's best to wait in the sidelines despite the US-China truce (unless some technical confirmation in the charts pops up). Though the arrest of Huawei's CFO last week doesn't have a direct impact on either the Chinese RNB or Aussie dollar, it might have an impact in the on-going relations between US and China, increasing trust issues and geopolitical risks.

AUDCAD - Wait near 0.96

AUDCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.71555 and buy up to 0.72750

AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 82 and buy up to 84

AUDNZD - Wait near 1.05

AUDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.724 and buy up to 0.73400

EURAUD - Wait near 1.58

GBPAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.75 and sell up to 0.72 - 0.73

CAD - Buy

Market seems to be still figuring out how to react to a lower than expected oil production cut by OPEC, initially from 1.4M barrels down to 800k barrels, however Russia finally agreed to raise it to 1.2M barrels. Overall, I'm expecting oil to go up until 60 at least between now and 1st quarter next year.

CADCHF - Wait near 0.745

CADJPY - Wait for bullish continuation past 85 and buy up to 85.7 - 86

EURCAD - Wait near 1.52

GBPCAD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.675 then sell up to 1.65

NZDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.915 then sell up to 0.905

USDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.335 then sell up to 1.3255

AUDCAD - Wait near 0.96

CHF - Wait

Overall still bullish in CHF because I'm still highly bearish on equities. However, there's possibility that S&P 500 will rally soon and won't break the 2600 support yet at least within the year, but need to get ready for its likelihood of dropping down to 2128.58 support starting Feb 2019 (especially since equities drop usually around February based on its seasonality).

CHFJPY - Buy past 113.5 up to 115

EURCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.128 then sell up to 1.12

GBPCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.25 then sell up to 1.235

NZDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.682 then buy up to near 0.69462

USDCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 0.987 and sell up to 0.98

AUDCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.71555 and buy up to 0.72750

CADCHF - Wait near 0.745

EUR - Wait

EUR pairs are currently a mixed bag for now, with most momentum being driven by other currencies. Overall most likely just wait in the sidelines unless a confirmation of a long-term trend in confirmed. With Brexit out of the way,  and Fed rate hike this month already priced in, the main focus next in the Euro zone will be the resolution of the Italian budget and the impact of US-China trade negotiations.

EURGBP - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.904 then buy up to near 0.91142

EURJPY - Buy past 129.2 up to 130.2 - 130.5

EURNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.65 then buy up to 1.63

EURUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.145 then buy up to 1.155

EURAUD - Wait near 1.58

EURCAD - Wait near 1.52

EURCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.128 then sell up to 1.12

GBP - Sell

Still bearish on GBP overall until official Brexit on March 2019, as explained in my previous post.

GBPJPY - Wait for bearish continuation past 142.3 then sell up to 140

GBPNZD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.83 then sell up to 1.80 - 1.81603

GBPUSD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.262 then sell up to 1.23 - 1.24

EURGBP - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.904 then buy up to near 0.91142

GBPAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.75 and sell up to 0.72 - 0.73

GBPCAD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.675 then sell up to 1.65

GBPCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.25 then sell up to 1.235

NZD - Wait

Still bullish on the Kiwi overall with same reasoning as my previous post. However need to be cautious of the possible consolidation this month especially after its boost during G20, and its seasonality suggesting the same for December. Will remain in the sidelines for now and not buy again until I get confirmation from NZD pairs breaking its current resistance from the daily and weekly charts.

NZDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 77.781 then buy up to 78.679 - 79

NZDUSD - Wait near 0.685

AUDNZD - Wait near 1.05

EURNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.65 then buy up to 1.63

GBPNZD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.83 then sell up to 1.80 - 1.81603

NZDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.915 then sell up to 0.905

NZDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.682 then buy up to near 0.69462

JPY - Wait

Though there's possibility that the equities will rally this week, the USD Index has now been testing its weekly resistance near 98 and also indicates being overbought. May continue to go with the flow being bearish on JPY while USD Index isn't reversing yet, however need to be highly cautious of possible sudden reversal soon. Best to wait in the sidelines.

USDJPY - Wait near 113.210

AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 82 and buy up to 84

CADJPY - Wait for bullish continuation past 85 and buy up to 85.7 - 86

CHFJPY - Buy past 113.5 up to 115

EURJPY - Buy past 129.2 up to 130.2 - 130.5

GBPJPY - Wait for bearish continuation past 142.3 then sell up to 140

NZDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 77.781 then buy up to 78.679 - 79

USD - Sell

USD index still testing its weekly resistance near 98. As explained in my previous post, imminent drop on USD as soon as the Fed announces another rate hike next week. Either wait on the sidelines or get ready to short soon especially with risks that the US-China truce not lasting after the arrest of Huawei CFO.

AUDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.724 and buy up to 0.73400

EURUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.145 then buy up to 1.155

GBPUSD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.262 then sell up to 1.23 - 1.24

NZDUSD - Wait near 0.685

USDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.335 then sell up to 1.3255

USDCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 0.987 and sell up to 0.98

USDJPY - Wait near 113.210

XAUUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation at 1244.73 then buy up to  1260 - 1265

XAGUSD - Wait near 14.5

XTIUSD - Wait near 50.60

USDZAR - Wait for bearish confirmation past 14.20 then sell up to near 13.8

USDMXN - Wait for bearish confirmation past 20.20 then sell again up to 20

Video version with Charts (basis for S/R and target numbers above):

Featured image by K. Mendez of Unsplash.