FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Nov 19-23, 2018

By Aiza Belle | 19 November 2018 | | Share:

Patiently waiting for the right setups this week before pouncing.

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

AUD - Wait

Despite being biased overall on the upside especially with the positive results of employment news last week, we have reached resistance zones for most AUD pairs. I'll most likely wait in the sidelines at until the RBA's next meeting on Tue 12:30am GMT, and will also remain cautious to avoid getting whipsawed in case there are new developments about the US-China trade negotiations.

AUDCAD - Wait near 0.96

AUDCHF - Wait for bounce up from 0.725 then buy up to 0.73320

AUDJPY - Buy past 83 up to 84.5

AUDNZD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.07138 up to 1.077

AUDUSD - Wait near 0.735

EURAUD - Might continue to go ranging between 1.55-1.56

GBPAUD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.77 then buy up to  1.79

CAD - Wait

Oil had touched 55-- the support level in the weekly chart last week. Possibility of recovery this week. Like AUD, I'll most likely wait in the sidelines for most CAD pairs until I get further confirmation of continued bearishness of oil, or a rally up especially with the planned reduction of oil production by Saudi Arabia and Russia soon (as mentioned in my previous post).

CADCHF - Sell up to 0.75

CADJPY - Might go ranging between 85.5 - 86.5

EURCAD - Wait near 1.50

GBPCAD - Might go ranging between 1.68 - 1.725

NZDCAD - Wait near 0.90

USDCAD - Wait near 1.32

AUDCAD - Wait near 0.96

CHF - Buy

When it comes to CHF and JPY, I'm still closely monitoring S&P 500 (and occasionally global equities news in general). I continue to have a bearish bias on equities, and since I also consider CHF to be a oversold already like EUR, there's more likelihood for CHF to rally and become bullish soon.

CHFJPY - Buy past 113.5 up to 115

EURCHF - Wait near 1.135

GBPCHF - Wait near 1.28

NZDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.682 then buy up to near 0.69462

USDCHF - Wait near 1.00, or sell up to 0.985

AUDCHF - Wait for bounce up from 0.725 then buy up to 0.73320

CADCHF - Sell up to 0.75

EUR - Buy (short-term)

Similar to CHF, EUR seems already oversold after reaching its 2018 low last week (though continued downward movement is still more likely to happen in the coming weeks). Possibility of EUR pairs rallying up at least for this week. Need to watch out for any dovish sentiment of ECB though, and upcoming PMI news on Friday.

EURGBP - Wait near 0.90

EURJPY - Buy past 129.2 up to 130.2 - 130.5

EURNZD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.68 then buy up to 1.70

EURUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation near 1.15 then buy up to near 1.155 - 1.165

EURAUD - Might continue to go ranging between 1.55-1.56

EURCAD - Wait near 1.50

EURCHF - Wait near 1.135

GBP - Wait

The pound seems to recover now from its bearishness last week after the EU's chief negotiator proposed an extension of UK's Brexit transition. Though it's tempting to buy the pound again, I'm gonna wait for more updates about PM May first. Though I might buy some GBP pairs this week to ride the rally, overall I'm still bearish in pound especially with Paris replacing London, and becoming the next financial center in Europe after Brexit.

GBPJPY - Wait near 145

GBPNZD - Sell up to 1.89811

GBPUSD - Might go ranging between 127.5 - 130.5

EURGBP - Wait near 0.90

GBPAUD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.77 then buy up to  1.79

GBPCAD - Might go ranging between 1.68 - 1.725

GBPCHF - Wait near 1.28

NZD - Buy

With most NZD pairs reaching key resistance levels already, possible to consolidate this week. However, considering its strong economic data previously, I remain bullish for NZD and will either just ride the short-term consolidation, or wait for confirmation of bullish continuation past its resistance levels.

NZDJPY - Wait near 77

NZDUSD - Wait near 0.68

AUDNZD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.07138 up to 1.077

EURNZD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.68 then buy up to 1.70

GBPNZD - Sell up to 1.89811

NZDCAD - Wait near 0.90

NZDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.682 then buy up to near 0.69462

JPY - Wait

Unlike CHF and despite positive trade results earlier, JPY might not get bullish right away at least until there's a complete confirmed reversal of the US dollar index already, or any other news about the US-China negotiation which might weaken the recent dollar's strength.

USDJPY - Wait near 112.5

AUDJPY - Buy past 83 up to 84.5

CADJPY - Might go ranging between 85.5 - 86.5

CHFJPY - Buy past 113.5 up to 115

EURJPY - Buy past 129.2 up to 130.2 - 130.5

GBPJPY - Wait near 145

NZDJPY - Wait near 77

USD - Sell

Since USD is already overbought and even showing signs of reversal in the weekly chart, I'll ride the consolidation of most US pairs this week if they continue to go down after the housing permit and durable goods news on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Before then, I'll just wait in the sidelines.

AUDUSD - Wait near 0.735

EURUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation near 1.15 then buy up to near 1.155 - 1.165

GBPUSD - Might go ranging between 127.5 - 130.5

NZDUSD - Wait near 0.68

USDCAD - Wait near 1.32

USDCHF - Wait near 1.00, or sell up to 0.985

USDJPY - Wait near 112.5

XAUUSD - Buy past 1225 up to 1235

XAGUSD - Buy past 14.5 up to 15

XTIUSD - Wait for bearish continuation past 54, then sell up to 50; else wait near 55

USDZAR - Wait for bearish continuation past 14 then sell up to near 13

USDMXN - Wait for bearish confirmation past 20.25 then sell up to 20

Video version with Charts:

Feature post image by Kevin of Unsplash