FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Nov 12-16, 2018

By Aiza Belle | 12 November 2018 | | Share:

Waiting for more exciting events ahead. What news are you delivering us, birdie?

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

AUD - Wait/Sell (short-term)

Though AUD pairs haven't reached resistance levels in the weekly chart yet (except for AUDJPY) so there's still room for recovery and opportunity to continue buying them, consolidation is more likely to happen this week especially with more investors and traders shifting their focus on the Trump-Xi meeting happening by end of November. Most are expecting a "positive" or at least a more cooperative outcome, similar to the meeting with North Korea last June. Possible to ride the consolidation this week, but need to be careful with the upcoming wage price and employment news coming this Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

AUDCAD - Wait to bounce down near 0.94 before buying again maybe

AUDCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.73 before buying up to 0.75

AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 83 before buying up to 85

AUDNZD - Risk of getting whipsawed, wait for better bounce near 1.068 (recent low)

AUDUSD - Starting to form a bowl in the weekly chart. Ride the consolidation to 0.705.

EURAUD - Wait for continued bearishness past 1.56 before selling up to near 1.52861 weekly support

GBPAUD - Wait for continued bearishness past 1.78 before selling up to near 0.75253 weekly support

CAD - Wait

CAD will continue to be highly correlated to the price of oil. Oil is starting to experience some rally this week, with US oil reaching support at 60. There had been discussions among Saudi Arabia and Russia to reduce oil production by next month. After being the weakest currency last week, rally for CAD is highly likely this week. Either I'll scalp CAD pairs while oil is also experiencing a gap up from 60 (with tight SL), or wait for confirmation of bearish continuation until the next support at 50.

CADCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.76 before selling up to near 0.75

CADJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 86 before selling up to 84-85

EURCAD - Possible to continue ranging between 1.475-1.50

GBPCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.70 and trail up to 1.68589-1.66

NZDCAD - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.89 and buy up to 0.90429 - 0.905

USDCAD - Wait for reversal and bearish confirmation at 1.31920 then sell up to 1.305

AUDCAD - Wait to bounce down near 0.94 before buying again maybe

CHF - Wait

CHF movement will depend on the direction of EUR and equities, mostly the latter. Waiting for how equities will move next: either start to move up and go ranging for some time or start a stronger bullish trend (wave 1), or continue to reverse down.

CHFJPY - Ranging between 112.2 - 113.5

EURCHF - Wait near 1.135

GBPCHF - Wait near 1.30

NZDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.68 then buy up to near 0.70

USDCHF - Wait near 1.00

AUDCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.73 before buying up to 0.75

CADCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.76 before selling up to near 0.75

EUR - Sell

I still have strong bearish bias on EUR especially the issue with Italy crisis is still ongoing. Italy needs to ensure that it lowers its deficit by 2019 (from the 2.9% of GDP which the EU estimated to be most likely to happen, down to strictly 2.4% or even lower).

EURGBP - Wait for bounce near 0.87 and buy up to 0.88200

EURJPY - Wait near 128. Might sell up to 127 if equities reverse and JPY gets strong again.

EURNZD - Wait (or scalp down) up to 1.66

EURUSD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.12328 and sell up to 1.10

EURAUD - Wait for continued bearishness past 1.56 before selling up to near 1.52861 weekly support

EURCAD - Possible to continue ranging between 1.475-1.50

EURCHF - Wait near 1.135

GBP - Wait

Despite continued Brexit discussions between UK and EU, uncertainties in the UK government such as the sudden resignation of its transport minister last Friday and rumored call for a rerun of election regarding Brexit weigh down GBP.

GBPJPY - Sell up to 145

GBPNZD - Sell up to 1.89811

GBPUSD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.28 and sell up to 1.26 - 1.27

EURGBP - Wait for bounce near 0.87 and buy up to 0.88200

GBPAUD - Wait for continued bearishness past 1.78 before selling up to near 0.75253 weekly support

GBPCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.70 and trail up to 1.68589-1.66

GBPCHF - Wait near 1.30

NZD - Buy

New Zealand's economic data remains strong, as shown in employment and inflation numbers last week. A more in-depth commentary about its economy is discussed here.

NZDJPY - Opportunity to buy up to 78, but a little overbought and risk of getting whipsawed if equity drops and JPY strengthens again

NZDUSD - Wait for bullish breakout past 0.68, else might go ranging between 0.66 - 0.68

AUDNZD - Risk of getting whipsawed, wait for better bounce near 1.068 (recent low)

EURNZD - Wait (or scalp down) up to 1.66

GBPNZD - Sell up to 1.89811

NZDCAD - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.89 and buy up to 0.90429 - 0.905

NZDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.68 then buy up to near 0.70

JPY - Wait

Similar to CHF, JPY's next move will depend on where equities will head next.

USDJPY - Wait for confirmation of reversal from 114 - 114.5

AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 83 before buying up to 85

CADJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 86 before selling up to 84-85

CHFJPY - Ranging between 112.2 - 113.5

EURJPY - Wait near 128. Might sell up to 127 if equities reverse and JPY gets strong again.

GBPJPY - Sell up to 145

NZDJPY - Opportunity to buy up to 78, but a little overbought and risk of getting whipsawed if equity drops and JPY strengthens again

USD - Wait

USD continues to get stronger after the midterm elections last week and the DXY now is making a new 2018 high. With USD getting overbought and some risks regarding the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, I'll most likely just wait in the sidelines.

AUDUSD - Starting to form a bowl in the weekly chart. Ride the consolidation to 0.705.

EURUSD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.12328 and sell up to 1.10

GBPUSD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.28 and sell up to 1.26 - 1.27

NZDUSD - Wait for bullish breakout past 0.68, else might go ranging between 0.66 - 0.68

USDCAD - Wait for reversal and bearish confirmation at 1.31920 then sell up to 1.305

USDCHF - Wait near 1.00

USDJPY - Wait for confirmation of reversal from 114 - 114.5

XAUUSD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1200 then sell up to 1180.946 - 1190

XAGUSD - Wait near 14

XTIUSD - Wait near 60 or wait for bearish continuation and sell up to 54.2 - 55

USDZAR - Wait near 14.5

USDMXN - Wait near 20

Video version with Charts:

Feature post image by S. Bark of Unsplash.